Insights

Darius Dale recently joined Víctor Hugo Rodríguez on Negocios Televisión to discuss why markets may not have bottomed yet—and what needs to change before risk assets become attractive again. If you missed the appearance, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio.

1) Markets Won’t Bottom Until Three Things Happen

Darius laid out a clear three-point checklist that must be met before investors can confidently reallocate into risk assets:

The Fed must expand its balance sheet (i.e., QE or liquidity support).

Consensus earnings and GDP estimates must be revised lower to reflect recession risks.

Clarity is needed on fiscal…

Darius Dale, 42 Macro Founder & CEO, recently joined InvestAnswers to break down the recent market volatility, the risks of macro shocks, and how investors should be thinking about the current market cycle. If you missed the podcast, here are three key takeaways that have huge implications for your portfolio.

1) Markets Are at a Tipping Point—Liquidity Holds the Key

While recent volatility has spooked investors, the bigger question is whether liquidity will continue to rise or start contracting. If liquidity expands, markets can push higher. If it stalls or reverses, risk assets could face severe pressure. Investors should watch the BOJ closely for the latest clues on liquidity amid the developing US growth scare. The sharp selloff in early-August is a preview of what may be in store for…

Darius recently sat down with Erik Townsend on MacroVoices for a wide-ranging discussion covering inflation, fiscal dominance, and the impact of the Fourth Turning on financial markets.
1) Inflation Is Not Going Back to 2%—And the Fed’s Response Will Be Crucial

Darius argues that inflation is structurally higher in this economic cycle and unlikely to return to the Fed’s 2% target without a full-blown recession. His research shows that inflation is the most lagging economic indicator, typically breaking down only 12-15 months after a recession starts—which is not currently in sight. Instead, inflation is likely to reaccelerate in 2025, driven by tight housing supply, faster credit growth, slowing labor supply, and increased pressure on corporate…